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- Students will learn that seismologists cannot currently predict earthquakes in the short-term, but can forecast where large earthquakes are likely to occur over many years. Such forecasts can be used to better prepare for strong ground motion.
- Slides include information about Parkfield, California, the 30-year forecast for California, and the emerging field of earthquake early warning. A follow-up discussion of how we can best prepare for large events (e.g. better construction and building codes, more awareness of what to do in a large earthquake, ability to predict where the strongest shaking will occur, etc.) is recommended for additional class time.
- This activity was developed for use in a high school (grades 9-12) earth science class. The goal of this lesson is for students to learn that earthquakes cannot currently be predicted, but that seismologists can forecast which areas are likely to have large earthquakes over a lengthy future period of time. Lesson duration: 45 minutes.
- This lesson is primarily intended to generate class discussion; any content assessment could be covered in a unit exam.
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Earthquake Probability
Parkfield California
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- Grade Level: 9-12
- Time Frame: 45 minutes
- California Science Standard 3d: "Plate tectonics operating over geologic time has changed the patterns of land, sea, and mountains on Earth’s surface. As the basis for understanding this concept: Students know why and how earthquakes occur and the scales used to measure their intensity and magnitude."
- California Science Standard 9b: "The geology of California underlies the state’s wealth of natural resources as well as its natural hazards. As a basis for understanding this concept: Students know the principal natural hazards in different California regions and the geologic basis of those hazards."
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Design EarthRef.org
Sponsored by NSF and NSDL
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