The probability of the occurrence of an earthquake of M≥6.5 is estimated by applying logistic models to seismicity in the Hikkaido-Tohoku region, northeast Japan. It is found that the probability of an earthquake occurrence near the arc junction off northeast Japan is high when a specific seismicity pattern appears; that is, seismic activity increases 7~10 years or decreases 3~6 years before an event of M≥6.5. Because seismic activity is currently extremely low near the arc junction, it is possible that an earthquake of M≥6.5 may occur there within a few years. Specifically, the probability estimated on the basis of logistic models is higher than 0.9 for the year of 1988.