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Detailed Reference Information |
Wilson, R.M. (1988). A prediction for the size of sunspot cycle 22. Geophysical Research Letters 15: doi: 10.1029/88GL02015. issn: 0094-8276. |
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Based on ''annual'' averages, a bivariate analysis of the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle against its minimum amplitude and the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index (in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum) results in a fit that closely matches the observable record. The bilinear fit has a high coefficient of correlation (r=0.982) and a small standard deviation (s=9.5), suggesting that it may be useful for predicting the size of a sunspot cycle 3 to 4 years before maximum amplitude occurrence. Applying the fit to Cycle 22, one infers an annual average of maximum amplitude Rmax equal to 92¿19 (equivalent to 96¿20, in terms of the 13-month running mean or ''smoothed'' sunspot number). |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
History of Geophysics, Solar/planetary relationships, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Magnetic fields, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Photosphere, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, General or miscellaneous |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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