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Knutson & Manabe 1994
Knutson, T.R. and Manabe, S. (1994). Impact of increased CO2 on simulated ENSO-like phenomena. Geophysical Research Letters 21: doi: 10.1029/94GL02152. issn: 0094-8276.

The impact of a CO2-induced global warming on ENSO-like fluctuations in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is analyzed using two multi-century experiments. In the 4CO2 experiment, CO2 increases by a factor of four in the first 140 years and then remains constant at 4CO2 for another 360 years; in the control experiment, CO2 remains constant at 1¿CO2 for 1000 years. The standard deviation of tropical Pacific SST fluctuations (7¿N-7¿S, 173¿E-120¿W; 2 to 15 year timescales) is 24% lower in the 4¿CO2 experiment than in the control experiment; for the model's Southern Oscillation Index, a 19% decrease occurs, whereas for central tropical Pacific rainfall, a 3% increase occurs. An important feature of the control simulation is the internally generated modulation of variability on a multi-century timescale, which is comparable in magnitude to the changes occurring with 4¿CO2. We conclude that despite an order 5 K warming of the tropical Pacific, and order 50% increase in time-mean atmospheric water vapor under 4¿CO2 conditions, ENSO-like SST fluctuations in the coupled model do not intensify, but rather decrease slightly in amplitude.

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Abstract

Keywords
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Ocean-atmosphere interactions, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Tropical meteorology, Oceanography, General, Climate and interannual variability, Oceanography, General, Numerical modeling
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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