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Hess & Elsner 1994

Hess, J.C. and Elsner, J.B. (1994). Extended-range hindcasts of tropical-origin Atlantic hurricane activity. Geophysical Research Letters 21: doi: 10.1029/94GL00008. issn: 0094-8276.

Annual tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin is divided into two groups: 1) all storms and 2) storms having formed exclusively from tropical disturbances. It is demonstrated that, using ordinary least-squares regression, cross-validated hindcasts of tropical storm activity from the latter group are more skillful than hindcasts of total hurricane activity. Differences in hindcast skill are above what is expected from a random reduction of the total numbers. Improvements are greatest for yearly numbers of hurricanes and hurricane days.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

	Abstract

Keywords
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Climatology, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Tropical meteorology, General or Miscellaneous, Techniques applicable in three or more fields, Information Related to Geographic Region, Atlantic Ocean

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/

Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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