Measurements of stratospheric water vapor by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite show that in the tropical lower stratosphere, low-frequency variations are closely related to the annual cycle in tropical tropopause temperatures. Tropical stratospheric air appears to retain information about the tropopause conditions it encountered for over a year as it rises through the stratosphere. We use a two-dimensional Lagrangian model to relate MLS measurements to the temperature that tropical air parcels encountered when crossing the 100 hPa surface. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1995