Observations of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field from ISEE-3 are used as input to the gasdynamic convected field model, as implemented in a new space weather forecast model. Then the model output, for three case studies, is compared with the magnetosheath quantities observed at ISEE-2 in order to identify the sources of the observed variations of the magnetosheath. It is found that some variations in the magnetosheath plasma and magnetic field are well correlated with corresponding variations in the solar wind and hence have their sources in the solar wind. However, some variations in the magnetosheath magnetic field correlate well with those in the solar wind but not variations in plasma density. Finally, we find that other variations in both plasma and magnetic field in the magnetosheath do not have appreciable correlations with variations in the solar wind. Most of these latter variations occur in the inner magnetosheath, indicating that they are endogenous in origin. Our results show that the forecast model can provide an accurate estimate of the timeshift from the solar wind monitor to the magnetosheath, of the instantaneous locations of the bow shock and magnetopause, and of the properties of the plasma and magnetic field in the outer and middle magnetosheath. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1996