EarthRef.org Reference Database (ERR)
Development and Maintenance by the EarthRef.org Database Team

Detailed Reference Information
Wyss & Allmann 1996
Wyss, M. and Allmann, A. (1996). Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with predictions in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: The VAN Case. Geophysical Research Letters 23: doi: 10.1029/95GL03548. issn: 0094-8276.

Evaluations of 22 claims of successful earthquake predictions in Greece by Varotsos and Lazaridou [1991> were performed using the Ms (surface wave) as well as the ML (local) magnitude scales. If we assume that the predicted magnitudes were Ms (the scale was not specified in the prediction telegrams), and use the Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters (PDE) to estimate the seismicity rate expected at random, we find that 74% were false (they did not correlate with an earthquake as specified), 9% correlated by chance (probability, p, of one or more earthquakes at random >.50), and 17% are uncertain (0.15Varotsos et al. [1981a,b,c, 1982a,b, 1983, 1993a,b, 1996> and Varotsos and Lazaridou [1991> (these references will be referred to as VAN) relating seismic electrical signals (SES) to earthquakes, are invalid. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1996

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Seismology, Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
1-202-462-6900
1-202-328-0566
service@agu.org
Click to clear formClick to return to previous pageClick to submit