Evaluations of 22 claims of successful earthquake predictions in Greece by Varotsos and Lazaridou [1991> were performed using the Ms (surface wave) as well as the ML (local) magnitude scales. If we assume that the predicted magnitudes were Ms (the scale was not specified in the prediction telegrams), and use the Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters (PDE) to estimate the seismicity rate expected at random, we find that 74% were false (they did not correlate with an earthquake as specified), 9% correlated by chance (probability, p, of one or more earthquakes at random >.50), and 17% are uncertain (0.15 Varotsos et al. [1981a,b,c, 1982a,b, 1983, 1993a,b, 1996> and Varotsos and Lazaridou [1991> (these references will be referred to as VAN) relating seismic electrical signals (SES) to earthquakes, are invalid. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1996 |