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Detailed Reference Information |
Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson, D.D. (1996). Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections. Geophysical Research Letters 23: doi: 10.1029/95GL03786. issn: 0094-8276. |
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The papers in the debate show that precise consideration of whether various events should be considered as having been successfully predicted is one of the key issues for statistical testing of the VAN earthquake prediction efforts. Other issues involve whether the VAN prediction rules have been adjusted retroactively to fit data, how to test the prediction significance and, finally, the criteria for rejection of the null hypothesis-that the VAN successful predictions are due to chance. The diversity of views on these subjects suggests that the seismological community needs a general strategy for evaluating earthquake prediction methods. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1996 |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Seismology, Seismic hazard assessment and prediction, Seismology, Seismicity and seismotectonics |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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