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Riedel 1996
Riedel, K.S. (1996). Statistical tests for evaluating earthquake prediction methods. Geophysical Research Letters 23: doi: 10.1029/96GL00476. issn: 0094-8276.

The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast the earthquakes. We formulate a statistical test for this possibility.

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Abstract

Keywords
Seismology, Seismic hazard assessment and prediction, Exploration Geophysics, Instruments and techniques
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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