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Detailed Reference Information |
Harrison, D.E. and Larkin, N.K. (1997). Darwin sea level pressure, 1876–1996: Evidence for climate change?. Geophysical Research Letters 24: doi: 10.1029/97GL01789. issn: 0094-8276. |
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It has been argued that there was a period of prolonged ENSO conditions between 1990--95 so anomalous that it is highly unlikely to be due to natural decadal-timescale variation [Trenberth and Hoar, 1996>. This conclusion follows from their study of the Darwin sea level pressure anomaly record, which found that the 1990--95 period would occur randomly about once every 1100--3000 yrs. Taking into account the uncertainty in number of degrees of freedom in the Darwin time series, we find that conditions like those of 1990--95 may be expected as often as every 150--200 yrs at the 95% confidence level. Student's-t, ARMA, and Bootstrap/Monte Carlo tests of the time series all yield similar results. We therefore suggest that the 1990--95 period may plausibly be an aspect of the natural variability of the tropical Pacific.¿ 1997 American Geophysical Union |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Global Change, General or miscellaneous, Oceanography, Physical, El Nino |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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