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Schatten & Hoyt 1998
Schatten, K. and Hoyt, D. (1998). Solar Cycle 23 forecast update. Geophysical Research Letters 25: doi: 10.1029/98GL00303. issn: 0094-8276.

Solar activity, although virtually impossible to forecast a month in advance, has succumbed to scientific methods on long time scales, much as climate or seasonal weather predictions are simpler than weekly weather forecasting. Moderately accurate solar activity forecasts on decadal time scales now seem possible. The methods that work fall into a class of prediction techniques called precursor methods. We utilize solar, interplanetary field, and geomagnetic precursors to update our cycle 23 prediction to provide a mean smoothed sunspot number of 153¿30 and mean smoothed F10.7 cm Radio flux of 200¿30. This is comparable to, but somewhat smaller than, the NOAA SEC panel findings that the next solar cycle would peak at a sunspot number near 160¿30. This paper also provides some discussion relating solar and interplanetary field components to serve as a bridge in interplanetary space, helping to forge Sun-Earth connections. ¿ 1998 American Geophysical Union

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Abstract

Keywords
Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Solar activity cycle, Interplanetary Physics, Solar cycle variations, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Magnetic fields, Global Change, Solar variability
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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