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Detailed Reference Information |
Mundt, M.D., Maguire, W.B. and Chase, R.R.P. (1991). Chaos in the sunspot cycle: Analysis and prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 96: doi: 10.1029/90JA02150. issn: 0148-0227. |
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The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. Finally, we compare the results to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior. ¿American Geophysical Union 1990 |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, General or miscellaneous |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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