The problem of day-to-day variability in the ocureance of equatorial spread F (ESF) is addressed using multidiagnostic observations and semiempirical modeling. The observational results are derived from a two-night case study of ESF onset conditions observed at Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands) using the ALTAIR incoherent scatter radar and all-sky optical imaging techniques. The major difference between two nights when ESF instabilities did not occur (August 14, 1988) and did occur (August 15, 1988) in the Kwajalein sector was that the northern meridional gradient of 6300--¿ airglow was reduced on the night of limited ESF activity. Modeling results suggest that this unusual airglow pattern is due to equatorward netural winds. Previous researches have shown that transequatorial thermospheric winds can exert a control over ESF seasonal and longitudinal occurrence patterns by inhibiting Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rates. We present evidence to suggest that this picture can be extended to far shorter time scales, namely, that ''surges'' in transequatorial winds acting over characteristic times of a few hours to a day can result in a stabilizing influence upon irregularity growth rates. The seemingly capricious nature of ESF onset may thus be controlled, in part, by the inherent variability of low-latitude thermospheric winds. ¿American Geophysical Union 1992