Contrary to previous claims that the VGP scatter and its latitude variation deduced from the present field are atypical of those for the past 5 m.y., it is shown that it is in fact typical when correctly calculated. A simple and effective model for the paleosecular variation of lavas is developed by using this important observation together with the dipole and quadrupole families from dynamo theory. The model predicts a latitudinal variation of VGP scatter, S, given by S=√A2λ2+B2, where λ is the latitude and A and B are parameters that depend on the contribution to the scatter from the dipole family and the quadrupole family, respectively. For the present field these parameters are estimated (95% confidence limits) as A=0.24¿0.02 and B=13.5¿0.6¿, and for the past 5 m.y. as A=0.23¿0.04 and B=12.8¿¿0.6¿. ¿ American Geophysical Union 19