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Oppenheimer et al. 1990
Oppenheimer, D.H., Bakun, W.H. and Lindh, A.G. (1990). Slip partitioning of the Calaveras fault, California, and prospects for future earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 95: doi: 10.1029/90JB00266. issn: 0148-0227.

Examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the Calaveras fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8--9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes. The spatial pattern of pre--main shock microseismicity surrounding the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill hypocenters is similar to the pattern of the post--main shock microseismicity. Microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones. Estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic. We propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes. From the pattern of microearthquake locations we recognized six aseismic zones where we expect future main shocks will rupture the Calaveras fault. From an analysis of historic seismic data we establish the main shock rupture history for each aseismic zone and identify two zones that are the most likely sites for the next M>5 earthquakes. The first zone is located near Gilroy and was last ruptured by a M5.2 earthquake in 1949. The second zone is located south of Calaveras Reservoir and north of the 1988 M5.1 Alum Rock earthquake. It has not slipped seismically since at least 1903, and the size of the aseismic region is sufficiently large to sustain a M5.5 earthquake. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1990

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Keywords
Seismology, Earthquake dynamics and mechanics, Information Related to Geographic Region, North America
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
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American Geophysical Union
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