An analysis of fluctuations in weekly mean percent ice cover, degree-days, and surface winds and monthly mean sea surface temperatures from the eastern Bering Sea shelf region is presented for the period 1973--1979. The seasonal advance of the ice begins at the Bering Strait in November, reaches its southern maximum extent in March--April, and has completely disappeared by early July. Large year-to-year deviations from the seasonal means are observed in the data. These time series are divided into two sections with the first (~1973--1976) characterized by lower (and slightly falling) temperatures and greater than normal (and slightly increasing) northerly surface winds and ice cover. The following period (~1976--1979) is characterized by strong rises in air and sea temperatures, a precipitous fall in ice cover, and a fall in the northerly component of the surface wind with more southerly flow. These observations lead to a conceptual model in which the mean winter atmospheric circulation is the driving force behind the large year-to-year fluctuations in the various data sets. On shorter time scales, two relatively minor but persistent ice retreats are shown to occur each year generally around the end of December and the end of February. These retreats last 2--3 weeks, range between 5 and 20% reduction in ice cover and appear to be caused by south winds causing compaction of the ice edge. South winds associated with east sides of low-pressure systems, either progressing or retrograding over the Bering Sea, appear to be the driving force for this phenomenon. |