The modulation of the signal level of a tower-based radar scatterometer illuminating a small area of the ocean surface is predicted from direct measurements of the hydrodynamic conditions of the ocean surface and compared with X band radar measurements taken simultaneously. The radar backscatter is assumed to be due to Bragg resonance between the signal and the ripple waves. The effects of the slope of the ocean surface due to passing long waves are modeled by converting a measured wave height series into a slope time series. Laser-slope-gauge mesurements of the spectrum of the ripple waves that ride upon the long ocean waves are used to predict the hydrodynamic effects. Comparisons with the measured radar signal show that the slope modulation alone gives a poor prediction of the modulation. Inclusion of the hydrodynamic effects in the simulation appears more promising, although it also is not entirely successful with this data set. ¿American Geophysical Union 1990