A fetch-dependent boundary-layer model, driven by observed temperature sounding data, is used to examine theoretical heights of buoyant convection (H) above open leads in the wintertime pack ice of the central Arctic. Assuming wet adiabatic ascent with no entrainment or friction, H is estimated as the height at which the model-predicted equivalent potential temperature at saturation above a lead (&THgr;el) intersects with the same value of equivalent potential temperature at saturation (&THgr;e) derived from vertical sounding profiles. H increases with increasing lead width. For a 1000-m lead, the widest which can be reasonably expected for the central Artic, the median value of H is approximately 1000 m, slightly below the median top of the low-level Arctic temperature inversion layer. While H shows large variability, events of convection up to 4 km, as recently observed from lidar backscatter data, appear to be fairly rare. First, these events require an open lead of at least 10,000 m. Second, while H tends to be largest under conditions of low surface wind speed, low surface temperature, and a weak low-level temperature inversion, this combination appears to be atypical of Arctic conditions. Third, while the meteorological conditions that should favor the development of open leads tend to minimize H, conditions favoring large H are also those in which any newly developed leads will quickly ice over. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1992