EarthRef.org Reference Database (ERR)
Development and Maintenance by the EarthRef.org Database Team

Detailed Reference Information
Marsan et al. 1996
Marsan, D., Schertzer, D. and Lovejoy, S. (1996). Causal space-time multifractal processes: Predictability and forecasting of rain fields. Journal of Geophysical Research 101: doi: 10.1029/96JD01840. issn: 0148-0227.

Building on earlier cascade models of rainfall, we propose a model of space-time rain fields based on scaling dynamics. These dynamics are indeed related to the space-time symmetries of the turbulent medium within which rainfall occurs: the underlying phenomenology corresponds to a cascade of structures with lifetimes depending only on the scale of the structures. In this paper we clarify two major issues: the scaling anisotropy between space and time, and the need to respect causality, i.e., a fundamental asymmetry between past and future. We detail how this ''arrow of time'' breaks the mirror symmetry with respect to the spatial hyperplane, and how it can be introduced in continuous multiplicative cascade models so as to remove the artificial temporal mirror symmetry of earlier models. We show that such a causal multifractal field can be understood as the result of an anomalous diffusion acting on the singularities of the field. Finally we will exploit and test these models through (1) a succinct analysis of rainfall data, (2) numerical simulations of the temporal decorrelation of two initially similar fields (accounting for the loss of predictability of the process), and (3) a forecasting method for multifractal rain fields. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1996

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Atmospheric Composition and Structure, General or miscellaneous
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
1-202-462-6900
1-202-328-0566
service@agu.org
Click to clear formClick to return to previous pageClick to submit