Accurate forecasts of total column ozone (&OHgr;) are important because, among other reasons, forecasts of clear-air biologically important solar ultraviolet (UVB) reaching the Earth's surface are exponentially sensitive to &OHgr;. We present a simple method for predicting &OHgr; using forecast lower stratospheric temperatures and a precalculated lookup table based on ozone climatology from several years of satellite observations. Compared with observations, the simple method gives 1-day forecast &OHgr; errors of ~1--2% (~2--3%) in northern (southern) hemisphere summers, comparable with current multivariate UVB forecast models being used by national weather services in several countries. The advantage of the prediction method described here is its simplicity: a convenient lookup table based on ozone climatology is used, without the need for recalculation in each forecast. The method may prove useful for surface UVB forecasts, especially in the biologically important summer seasons of both hemispheres. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1996 |