The zonal windstress anomaly in the far-western equatorial Pacific (130--160 ¿E) is a precursor to El Ni¿o and La Ni¿a episodes. A linear combination of this wind-stress with the El Ni¿o index NINO3.4 can be used to predict ENSO successfully. Cross-verified prediction results for NINO3.4 compare favorably with those of leading ENSO prediction models. The model is improved slightly if the time trend in sea surface temperature (SST) near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool is included in the linear combination. Physically this trend is related to zonal equatorial ocean flow which advects the warm pool. The trend therefore aids prediction since it is a precursor to warm pool position and hence ENSO variability. ¿ 2001 American Geophysical Union