Based on a Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) simulation we study the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on the stability of the El Ni¿o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). The linear stability of such a complex model cannot be assessed directly, hence we will derive empirical low order models for ENSO from the CGCM simulation under consideration. These models capture essential features of ENSO and are sensitive also to temporal changes in ENSO statistics. An eigenvalue analysis of these reduced models reveals that as greenhouse warming progresses a transition takes place from a stable oscillatory behavior to an unstable oscillation. This transition coincides with an abrupt change in simulated ENSO activity and can be explained in terms of changing ocean dynamics. ¿ 2001 American Geophysical Union