The paper discusses the prediction of long-term fade duration statistics in slant paths, obtained from rain attenuation time series simulated with the synthetic storm technique (with input from 1-min rain rate time series). The results of the prediction were tested against the experimental fade duration statistics collected at three sites of the Sirio experiment in Italy at 11.6 GHz. Predicted and measured statistics are very similar for fade durations longer than about 64--128 s, which represent a fundamental lower limit to fade duration prediction using 1-min rain rate time series. The short durations have not been reproduced because they are mainly caused by tropospheric turbulence, not by the space-time structure of rain, well described statistically by the synthetic storm technique. The prediction is not sensitive to rainstorm speed.¿ 1997 American Geophysical Union