EarthRef.org Reference Database (ERR)
Development and Maintenance by the EarthRef.org Database Team

Detailed Reference Information
Mesa & Poveda 1993
Mesa, O.J. and Poveda, G. (1993). The Hurst effect: The scale of fluctuation approach. Water Resources Research 29: doi: 10.1029/93WR01686. issn: 0043-1397.

After more than 40 years the so-called Hurst effect remains an open problem in stochastic hydrology. Historically, its existence has been explained either by preasymptotic behavior of the rescaled adjusted range R*n, certain classes of nonstationarity in time series, infinite memory, or erroneous estimation of the Hurst exponent. Various statistical tests to determine whether an observed time series exhibits the Hurst effect are presented. The tests are based on the fact that for the family of processes in the Brownian domain of attraction, R*n/((&thgr;n))1/2 converges in distribution to a nondegenerate random variable with known distribution (functional central limit theorem). The scale of fluctuation &thgr;, defined as the sum of the correlation function, plays a key role. Application of the tests to several geophysical time series seems to indicate that they do not exhibit the Hurst effect, although those series have been used as examples of its existence, and furthermore the traditional pox diagram method to estimate the Hurst exponent gives values larger than 0.5. It turned out that the coefficient in the relation of R*n versus n, which is directly proportional to the scale of fluctuation, was more important than the exponent. The Hurst effect motivated the popularization of 1/f noises and related ideas of fractals and scaling. This work illustrates how delicate the procedures to deal with infinity must be. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1993

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Hydrology, Stochastic processes, General or Miscellaneous, Techniques applicable in three or more fields, Hydrology, Reservoirs, Hydrology, General or miscellaneous
Journal
Water Resources Research
http://www.agu.org/wrr/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
1-202-462-6900
1-202-328-0566
service@agu.org
Click to clear formClick to return to previous pageClick to submit