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Brooks et al. 1994
Brooks, R.J., Lerner, D.N. and Tobias, A.M. (1994). Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which arises from alternative calibrations. Water Resources Research 30: doi: 10.1029/94WR00947. issn: 0043-1397.

A major element in constructing a groundwater model is choosing the parameter values. The traditional approach is to aim for a single best set of values. The parameters used in a model are effective rather than measurable, and this combined with the inherent uncertainties in the modeling process means that there are often many plausible sets of values. A single prediction obtained from a single set of parameter values is not appropriate, but rather the range in predictions from the alternative calibrations should be used. A method is presented for finding the best case and worst case predictions among the plausible parameter sets and is applied to a real case study. Widely different feasible parameter sets were found giving significantly different predictions. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1994

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Abstract

Keywords
Policy Sciences, Decision making under uncertainty
Journal
Water Resources Research
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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