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Detailed Reference Information |
Montanari, A., Rosso, R. and Taqqu, M.S. (1997). Fractionally differenced ARIMA models applied to hydrologic time series: Identification, estimation, and simulation. Water Resources Research 33: doi: 10.1029/97WR00043. issn: 0043-1397. |
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Since Hurst <1951> detected the presence of long-term persistence in hydrologic data, new estimation methods and long-memory models have been developed. The lack of flexibility in representing the combined effect of short and long memory has been the major limitation of stochastic models used to analyze hydrologic time series. In the present paper a fractionally differenced autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) model is considered. In contrast to using traditional ARIMA models, this approach allows the modeling of both short- and long-term persistence in a time series. A framework for identification and estimation is presented. The data do not have to be Gaussian. The resulting model, which replicates the sample probability density of the data, can be used for the generation of long synthetic series. An application to the monthly and daily inflows of Lake Maggiore, Italy, is presented.¿ 1997 American Geophysical Union |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Hydrology, Stochastic processes, Hydrology, Runoff and streamflow, Hydrology, Water supply |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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