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Detailed Reference Information |
Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., Shcherbakov, R., Klein, W. and Sammis, C. (2003). Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems. Reviews of Geophysics 41. doi: 10.1029/2003RG000135. issn: 8755-1209. |
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Earthquakes and the faults upon which they occur interact over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In addition, many aspects of regional seismicity appear to be stochastic both in space and time. However, within this complexity, there is considerable self-organization. We argue that the occurrence of earthquakes is a problem that can be attacked using the fundamentals of statistical physics. Concepts of statistical physics associated with phase changes and critical points have been successfully applied to a variety of cellular automata models. Examples include sandpile models, forest fire models, and, particularly, slider block models. These models exhibit avalanche behavior very similar to observed seismicity. A fundamental question is whether variations in seismicity can be used to successfully forecast the occurrence of earthquakes. Several attempts have been made to utilize precursory seismic activation and quiescence to make earthquake forecasts, some of which show promise. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Mathematical Geophysics, Nonlinear dynamics, Mathematical Geophysics, Modeling, Mathematical Geophysics, Fractals and multifractals, Seismology, Earthquake dynamics and mechanics, Seismology, Theory and modeling |
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Journal
Reviews of Geophysics |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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