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Detailed Reference Information |
Cowpertwait, P.S.P., Kilsby, C.G. and O'Connell, P.E. (2002). A space-time Neyman-Scott model of rainfall: Empirical analysis of extremes. Water Resources Research 38: doi: 10.1029/2001WR000709. issn: 0043-1397. |
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A spatial-temporal model of rainfall, based on a Neyman-Scott stochastic point process, is fitted to hourly data taken from nine sites in the Arno Basin, Italy. The stochastic model is an extension of the temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model into two-dimensional space and introduces a further parameter into the model. In the model, storms arrive in a Poisson process, where each storm consists of discs representing rain cells, with centers distributed over an area according to a spatial Poisson process. The cells have a random radius, lifetime, and intensity, with the intensity remaining constant over the area of the disc and cell lifetime. A fitting procedure is proposed which couples the results obtained in two preceding papers: the second-order properties of the spatial-temporal model and the third moment function of the single site model <Cowpertwait, 1995, 1998>. The model is validated by comparing extreme historical hourly data and equivalent data simulated using the fitted spatial-temporal model. These comparisons are made using a regional frequency analysis, based on L moments, and log-log plots of the upper distribution tail. The results indicate that the model is able to preserve regional extremes and support the use of the model in hydrological applications. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Hydrology, Precipitation, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Precipitation, Hydrology, Stochastic processes, Hydrology, Floods |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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