|
Detailed Reference Information |
Chu, P.C., Ivanov, L.M., Kantha, L.H., Melnichenko, O.V. and Poberezhny, Y.A. (2002). Power law decay in model predictability skill. Geophysical Research Letters 29: doi: 10.1029/2002GL014891. issn: 0094-8276. |
|
Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests long-term predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long such as 50--60 day) predictability is not an outlier and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions. |
|
|
|
BACKGROUND DATA FILES |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
|
|
Keywords
Oceanography, General, Ocean prediction, Mathematical Geophysics, Modeling, Oceanography, Physical, General circulation, Oceanography, Physical, Currents |
|
Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
|
|
|