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Keating & Jager 2003
Keating, C.F. and Jager, N.O. (2003). Predicting the mean Bz magnitude, revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: doi: 10.1029/2002JA009813. issn: 0148-0227.

Keating et al. <2001> showed that a boxcar average of the Bz magnitude varied in a cyclic pattern with an approximate correlation to the solar sunspot cycle. They then proposed that the McNish-Lincoln technique, used to forecast sunspot numbers, could also be used to make a forecast of future activity of the mean Bz magnitude. Using this method, they made predictions concerning future mean Bz activity. In this paper, we wish to reexamine these predictions and compare them to actual events. There was a problem with the data in the first paper that we have corrected. We will show that even with this error the observations and premises of the first paper are correct. Applying the McNish-Lincoln technique to the current data indicates the average magnitude of Bz will decline over the next few years as the current solar cycle goes through its declining phase. These results will aid us in anticipating the average interplanetary magnetic field activity over the near-term and assist in making appropriate long-term decisions concerning systems that are vulnerable to solar storms.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Interplanetary Physics, Interplanetary magnetic fields, Interplanetary Physics, Solar cycle variations, Interplanetary Physics, Instruments and techniques, Magnetospheric Physics, Forecasting, Ionosphere, Auroral ionosphere
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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