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Kessler 2002
Kessler, W.S. (2002). Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events?. Geophysical Research Letters 29: doi: 10.1029/2002GL015924. issn: 0094-8276.

After early ideas that saw El Ni¿os as isolated events, the advent of coupled models brought the conception of ENSO as a cycle in which each phase led to the next in a self-sustained oscillation. Twenty-two years of observations that represent the El Ni¿o and La Ni¿a peaks (east Pacific SST) and the memory of the system (zonal mean warm water volume) suggest a distinct break in the cycle, in which the coupled system is able to remain in a weak La Ni¿a state for up to two years, so that memory of previous influences would be lost. Similarly, while the amplitude of anomalies persists from the onset of a warm event through its termination, there is no such persistence across the La Ni¿a break. These observations suggest that El Ni¿os are in fact event-like disturbances to a stable basic state, requiring an initiating impulse not contained in the dynamics of the cycle itself.

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Abstract

Keywords
Oceanography, Physical, El Nino, Global Change, Climate dynamics, Oceanography, Physical, Air/sea interactions
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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