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Prather et al. 2003
Prather, M., Gauss, M., Berntsen, T., Isaksen, I., Sundet, J., Bey, I., Brasseur, G., Dentener, F., Derwent, R., Stevenson, D., Grenfell, L., Hauglustaine, D., Horowitz, L., Jacob, D., Mickley, L., Lawrence, M., von Kuhlmann, R., Muller, J., Pitari, G., Rogers, H., Johnson, M., Pyle, J., Law, K., van Weele, M. and Wild, O. (2003). Fresh air in the 21st century?. Geophysical Research Letters 30: doi: 10.1029/2002GL016285. issn: 0094-8276.

Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of -4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere.

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Abstract

Keywords
Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Pollution--urban and regional, Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Troposphere--composition and chemistry, Global Change, Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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