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Detailed Reference Information |
Kane, R.P. (2002). Prediction of solar activity: Role of long-term variations. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: doi: 10.1029/2001JA000247. issn: 0148-0227. |
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From the near-zero values during the Maunder Minimum (1645--1715), the maxima Rz(max) of smoothed sunspot numbers reached values of ~140 by cycle 0--1 (~1750) and then had long-term fluctuations (high values for 3--5 cycles, followed by low values for 3--5 cycles, differing by as much as 50 units), on which random fluctuations were superposed. There is some indication of a ~100-year oscillation that might have peaked near cycle 20 at Rz(max) values near ~150. If this oscillation persists, the cycles in the next 50 years or so may have lower and lower R(max), perhaps dropping below 100, and recovering thereafter. The aa(min) values, and to a lesser degree, the Rz(min) values, are also expected to follow the same pattern. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Interplanetary Physics, Solar cycle variations, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Solar activity cycle, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Solar and stellar variability |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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