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Katsumata et al. 2002
Katsumata, K., Kasahara, M., Ozawa, S. and Ivashchenko, A. (2002). A five years super-slow aseismic precursor model for the 1994 M8.3 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki lithospheric earthquake based on tide gauge data. Geophysical Research Letters 29: doi: 10.1029/2002GL014982. issn: 0094-8276.

Here we present a super-slow aseismic event model prior to the magnitude 8.3 Kurile Island (Hokkaido-Toho-Oki) earthquake on 4 October 1994 based on data recorded by two tide gauges, located 50--150 km from the earthquake epicenter. Both instruments recorded several cm of subsidence during a five-year period prior to the earthquake. The observed signals are consistent with a precursory quasi-stable slip on the western half of the Hokkaido-Toho-Oki fault plane. When recognized, such aseismic events can considerably improve our intermediate-term (several years) prediction capability.

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Abstract

Keywords
Geodesy and Gravity, Crustal movements--interplate, Seismology, Earthquake dynamics and mechanics, Seismology, Seismic hazard assessment and prediction, Tectonophysics, Earth's interior--composition and state
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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