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Pegram 1978
Pegram, G.G.S. (1978). Some simple expressions for the probability of failure of a finite reservoir with Markovian input. Geophysical Research Letters 5: doi: 10.1029/GL005i001p00013. issn: 0094-8276.

In a previous paper the writer derived an explicit expression for the probability of failure of a discrete reservoir fed by a Markovian input. This is now simplified to expressions for particular cases which are characterized by the ratio of mean input to target draft. It is shown that the expressions yield some classical results in stochastic Reservoir Theory.

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Geophysical Research Letters
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American Geophysical Union
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