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Giorgi & Mearns 2003
Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L.O. (2003). Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. Geophysical Research Letters 30: doi: 10.1029/2003GL017130. issn: 0094-8276.

We present an extension of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging, or REA, method <Giorgi and Mearns, 2002> to calculate the probability of regional climate change exceeding given thresholds based on ensembles of different model simulations. The method is applied to a recent set of transient experiments for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios with 9 different atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Probabilities of surface air temperature and precipitation change are calculated for 10 regions of subcontinental scale spanning a range of latitudes and climatic settings. The results obtained from the REA method are compared with those obtained with a simpler but conceptually similar approach <R¿is¿nen and Palmer, 2001>. It is shown that the REA method can provide a simple and flexible tool to estimate probabilities of regional climate change from ensembles of model simulations for use in risk and cost assessment studies.

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Abstract

Keywords
Global Change, Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Hydrology, Anthropogenic effects, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Climatology, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Numerical modeling and data assimilation, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Precipitation
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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