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Schatten 2002
Schatten, K. (2002). Solar activity prediction: Timing predictors and cycle 24. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: doi: 10.1029/2002JA009404. issn: 0148-0227.

Solar activity forecasting uses numerous methods. Some methods employed are purely numerological, whereas others utilize readily available, well-established mathematical techniques. There often is, however, no physical basis for some of these methods. Within this arena, however, there is a small subset, called precursors, which does have a physical basis. We briefly describe the physical basis of these methods and relate them to solar dynamo physics. Further, we develop techniques to reduce one major source of uncertainty or error in these solar activity predictions. This uncertainty is in the timing of the solar cycle. The importance of solar activity timing is apparent when one considers that past solar cycles have periods varying from 8 to 17 years. This makes the timing of the solar cycle only second in importance in solar activity prediction to obtaining the amplitude of any cycle. Two solar phenomena are utilized to obtain a time mark for each solar cycle. These are the polar field reversal and the march of activity centers towards the equator. This latter phenomenon is often referred to as the butterfly diagram. These timings essentially provide a phasing of the cycle. With this, we provide a preliminary prospective on solar cycle 24.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Solar activity cycle, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Magnetic fields, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Radio emissions, Interplanetary Physics, Solar cycle variations
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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