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Masterlark 2003
Masterlark, T. (2003). Finite element model predictions of static deformation from dislocation sources in a subduction zone: Sensitivities to homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid, and half-space assumptions. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: doi: 10.1029/2002JB002296. issn: 0148-0227.

Dislocation models can simulate static deformation caused by slip along a fault. These models usually take the form of a dislocation embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic, Poisson-solid half-space (HIPSHS). However, the widely accepted HIPSHS assumptions poorly approximate subduction zone systems of converging oceanic and continental crust. This study uses three-dimensional finite element models (FEMs) that allow for any combination (including none) of the HIPSHS assumptions to compute synthetic Green's functions for displacement. Using the1995 Mw = 8.0 Jalisco-Colima, Mexico, subduction zone earthquake and associated measurements from a nearby GPS array as an example, FEM-generated synthetic Green's functions are combined with standard linear inverse methods to estimate dislocation distributions along the subduction interface. Loading a forward HIPSHS model with dislocation distributions, estimated from FEMs that sequentially relax the HIPSHS assumptions, yields the sensitivity of predicted displacements to each of the HIPSHS assumptions. For the subduction zone models tested and the specific field situation considered, sensitivities to the individual Poisson-solid, isotropy, and homogeneity assumptions can be substantially greater than GPS measurement uncertainties. Forward modeling quantifies stress coupling between the Mw = 8.0 earthquake and a nearby Mw = 6.3 earthquake that occurred 63 days later. Coulomb stress changes predicted from static HIPSHS models cannot account for the 63-day lag time between events. Alternatively, an FEM that includes a poroelastic oceanic crust, which allows for postseismic pore fluid pressure recovery, can account for the lag time. The pore fluid pressure recovery rate puts an upper limit of 10-17 m2 on the bulk permeability of the oceanic crust.

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Abstract

Keywords
Geodesy and Gravity, Seismic deformations, Mathematical Geophysics, Numerical solutions, Mathematical Geophysics, Inverse theory, Seismology, Earthquake parameters, Seismology, Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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