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Crainiceanu et al. 2003
Crainiceanu, C.M., Stedinger, J.R., Ruppert, D. and Behr, C.T. (2003). Modeling the U.S. national distribution of waterborne pathogen concentrations with application to Cryptosporidium parvum. Water Resources Research 39: doi: 10.1029/2002WR001664. issn: 0043-1397.

This paper provides a general statistical methodology for modeling environmental pathogen concentrations in natural waters. A hierarchical model of pathogen concentrations captures site and regional random effects as well as random laboratory recovery rates. Recovery rates were modeled by a generalized linear mixed model. Two classes of pathogen concentration models are differentiated according to their ultimate purpose: water quality prediction or health risk analysis. A fully Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is used for statistical inference. The applicability of this methodology is illustrated by the analysis of a national survey of Cryptosporidium parvum concentrations, in which 93% of the observations were zero counts.

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Abstract

Keywords
Hydrology, Runoff and streamflow, Hydrology, Surface water quality, Hydrology, Instruments and techniques
Journal
Water Resources Research
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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