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Goswami & Xavier 2003
Goswami, B.N. and Xavier, P.K. (2003). Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks. Geophysical Research Letters 30: doi: 10.1029/2003GL017810. issn: 0094-8276.

Extended range prediction (two to three weeks in advance) of Indian summer monsoon active (rainy) and break (dry) phases are of great importance for agricultural planning and water management. Using daily rainfall and circulation data for 23 years, a fundamental property of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) is discovered and shown that the potential predictability limit (~20 days) of monsoon breaks is significantly higher than that for active conditions (~10 days). An empirical model for prediction of monsoon ISO's is then constructed and feasibility of useful prediction of monsoon breaks up to 18 days in advance is demonstrated.

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Abstract

Keywords
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Convective processes, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic-scale meteorology, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Tropical meteorology
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
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