The current consensus is that up to half of the modern atmospheric dust load originates from anthropogenically-disturbed soils. Here, we estimate the contribution to the atmospheric dust load from agricultural areas by calibrating a dust-source model with emission indices derived from dust-storm observations. Our results indicate that dust from agricultural areas contributes <10% to the global dust load. Analyses of future changes in dust emissions under several climate and land-use scenarios suggest dust emissions may increase or decrease, but either way the effects of climate change will dominate dust emissions.