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Detailed Reference Information
Li 2004
Li, X. (2004). Variations of 0.7–6.0 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit as a function of solar wind. Space Weather 2. doi: 10.1029/2003SW000017. issn: 1542-7390.

The variations of MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are predictable based on solar wind measurements. Using a model based on the standard radial diffusion equation applied for the years 1995--1999, a prediction efficiency of 64.4% and a linear correlation of 0.81 were achieved for the logarithm of average daily flux of 0.7--1.8 MeV electrons. The same model with different parameters gave a prediction efficiency of 70.2% and 72.4% and a linear correlation of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively, for 1.8--3.5 MeV and 3.5--6.0 MeV electrons during the same time period. The radial diffusion coefficient in the model is a function of location, solar wind velocity, interplanetary magnetic field, season, and solar cycle. The average lifetime of the electrons is a function of the radial distance and solar cycle. The radial diffusion equation is solved with given boundary conditions. These results suggest that MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit, extending over a wide energy range, have a systematic response to the solar wind variations. This model has been updated and is making real-time forecasts of daily averaged >2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Magnetospheric Physics, Energetic particles, trapped, Magnetospheric Physics, Forecasting, Magnetospheric Physics, Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions, Magnetospheric Physics, Magnetosphere—inner, radiation belt electrons, prediction, forecast, solar wind, geosynchronous orbit, relativistic electrons
Journal
Space Weather
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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