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Kug et al. 2004
Kug, J., Kang, I., Lee, J. and Jhun, J. (2004). A statistical approach to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature prediction using a dynamical ENSO prediction. Geophysical Research Letters 31: doi: 10.1029/2003GL019209. issn: 0094-8276.

In this study, a statistical prediction model has been developed to forecast monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean. It is a linear regression model based on a lagged relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the NINO3 SST. A new approach to the statistical modeling has been tried out, in which the model predictors are obtained from not only observed NINO3 SST but also predicted results produced by a dynamical El Ni¿o model. The forecast skill of the present model is better than that of persistence prediction. In particular, the present model has a significantly improved predictive skill during the spring and summer seasons when the boreal summer Indian monsoon is affected by the Indian Ocean SST.

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Abstract

Keywords
Oceanography, General, Ocean prediction, Oceanography, General, Continental shelf processes, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504), Mathematical Geophysics, Modeling, Global Change, Climate dynamics
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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