EarthRef.org Reference Database (ERR)
Development and Maintenance by the EarthRef.org Database Team

Detailed Reference Information
Karol et al. 2004
Karol, I., Kiselev, A., Zubov, V., Egorova, T., Hoyle, C. and Rozanov, E. (2004). An assessment of the statistical significance of the total ozone changes simulated with global chemical transport model MEZON. Geophysical Research Letters 31: doi: 10.1029/2004GL020536. issn: 0094-8276.

This paper is intended to investigate the statistical significance of the ozone recovery amounts computed with the chemical transport model (CTM) MEZON, given errors in the reaction rates and model initial conditions. The CTM is used to investigate the sensitivity of the ozone to Montreal Protocol and its Amendments (MPA) restrictions on the emission of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere during 1992--2002. The known Student's t-test is applied for the assessment of the statistical significance of the saved total ozone (TO) by the MPA. The results reveal that the uncertainties in the initial fields do not substantially reduce the statistical significance of the results. Substantial reduction of the statistical significance is caused by the uncertainty in the kinetic constants. The model noise level reaches its highest values (up to 10%) in the polar areas during late winter - early spring. The saved TO also reaches its maximum there and, therefore, it is significant at the 90--95% confidence level.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Middle atmosphere—composition and chemistry, Global Change, Impact phenomena, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Numerical modeling and data assimilation
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
1-202-462-6900
1-202-328-0566
service@agu.org
Click to clear formClick to return to previous pageClick to submit