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Tippett et al. 2004
Tippett, M.K., Kleeman, R. and Tang, Y. (2004). Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 31: doi: 10.1029/2004GL021575. issn: 0094-8276.

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

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Abstract

Keywords
Global Change, Climate dynamics, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Precipitation, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504), Oceanography, Physical, El Nino, Hydrology, Stochastic processes
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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