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Peng & Reynolds 2005
Peng, M.S. and Reynolds, C.A. (2005). Double trouble for typhoon forecasters. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi: 10.1029/2004GL021680. issn: 0094-8276.

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone forecast to changes in the initial state is examined using powerful singular vector diagnostics from a global weather forecast model. These techniques reveal the complex impact of both the local and remote environment on the typhoons. We demonstrate how the analyzed position and forecast of one typhoon can have a significant impact on the forecast of a second typhoon, even at distances up to 1861 km. These results highlight the difficulty of tropical cyclone prediction, especially when remote forcing plays a significant role in tropical cyclone motion.

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Abstract

Keywords
Mathematical Geophysics, Prediction (3245, 4263), Atmospheric Processes, Tropical meteorology
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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