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Kug et al. 2005
Kug, J., An, S., Jin, F. and Kang, I. (2005). Preconditions for El Niño and La Niña onsets and their relation to the Indian Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi: 10.1029/2004GL021674. issn: 0094-8276.

El Ni¿o/La Ni¿a onset is a challenging problem of ENSO prediction. In this study, we introduce two precursors of El Ni¿o and La Ni¿a onsets. One is the equatorial heat content, and the other is the Western Pacific (WP) wind. When the two precursors are considered together, both the El Ni¿o and La Ni¿a onsets can be highly predictable. In particular, the persistence of the WP wind is more important for the onset than sporadic wind events. The persistent WP westerly (easterly) wind tends to be concurrent with the Indian Ocean SST cooling (warming). The Indian Ocean SST anomaly is partly correlated to an ENSO event during the previous winter. We demonstrate that an asymmetric relation between the Indian Ocean SST and ENSO can result in asymmetric progress of onset in the opposite ENSO phases.

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Abstract

Keywords
Oceanography, Physical, ENSO, Oceanography, Physical, Air/sea interactions (0312, 3339), Oceanography, Physical, Upper ocean and mixed layer processes
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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