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Detailed Reference Information |
Overland, J.E. and Wang, M. (2005). The Arctic climate paradox: The recent decrease of the Arctic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi: 10.1029/2004GL021752. issn: 0094-8276. |
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A current paradox is that many physical and biological indicators of Arctic change-summer sea-ice extent, spring surface air temperature and cloud cover, and shifts in vegetation and other ecosystems-show nearly linear trends over the previous two and a half decades, while the Arctic Oscillation, a representative atmospheric circulation index often associated with Arctic change, has had a different, more episodic behavior, with a near-neutral or negative phase for 6 of the last 9 years (1996--2004) following a positive phase (1989--1995). Stratospheric temperature anomalies over the Arctic, which serve as an index of the strength of the polar vortex, also show this episodic character. Model projections of Arctic temperature for 2010--2029 show model-to-model and region-to-region differences suggesting large variability in the future response of atmospheric circulation to external forcing. Thus internal processes in the western Arctic may have a larger role in shaping the present persistence of Arctic change than has been previously recognized. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Global Change, Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes, Polar meteorology, Geographic Location, Arctic region (0718, 4207) |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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