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Detailed Reference Information |
Kondrashov, D., Feliks, Y. and Ghil, M. (2005). Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622–1922). Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi: 10.1029/2004GL022156. issn: 0094-8276. |
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The historical records of the low- and high-water levels of the Nile River are among the longest climatic records that have near-annual resolution. There are few gaps in the first part of the records (A.D. 622--1470) and larger gaps later (A.D. 1471--1922). We apply advanced spectral methods, Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and the Multi-Taper Method (MTM), to fill the gaps and to locate interannual and interdecadal periodicities. The gap filling uses a novel, iterative version of SSA. Our analysis reveals several statistically significant features of the records: a nonlinear, data-adaptive trend that includes a 256-year cycle, a quasi-quadriennial (4.2-year) and a quasi-biennial (2.2-year) mode, as well as additional periodicities of 64, 19, 12, and, most strikingly, 7 years. The quasi-quadriennial and quasi-biennial modes support the long-established connection between the Nile River discharge and the El-Ni¿o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The longest periods might be of astronomical origin. The 7-year periodicity, possibly related to the biblical cycle of lean and fat years, seems to be due to North Atlantic influences. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Hydrology, Floods, Mathematical Geophysics, Time series analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), Oceanography, General, Climate and interannual variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513) |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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